严文宏
Wenhong Yan

增强宏观政策取向一致性是我国宏观调控的重大部署，其中财政与货币信贷政策协调尤为关键。现有研究主要关注财政资金对信贷规模影响，未系统研究其对信贷结构的作用，从理论上无法全面解释财政资金对信贷配置的影响机制。本项目探究财政资金影响商业银行信贷分配结构的机理、效应和优化策略。本项目首先刻画财政资金与银行信贷的现状及互动关系。其次，通过账户分析和模型分析，拓展“新市场财政学”的“财政—央行双主体”理论，剖析财政资金影响信贷结构的机理。再次，基于我国196家商业银行的微观数据，运用多组多时点双重差分和引入机器学习的工具变量回归等因果推断方法，识别财政收支、政府债务、国库现金管理等财政资金对信贷结构的影响。最后，提出优化信贷结构的策略建议。本项目将财政货币关系理论拓展至信贷结构领域，并提供微观因果证据；同时，本项目有助于优化信贷结构以支持实体经济、防范金融风险，促进增强宏观政策取向一致性。

Enhancing the consistency of macroeconomic policy orientation is a major initiative in China's macroeconomic regulation, with the coordination between fiscal and monetary credit policies being particularly crucial. Existing research has mainly focused on the impact of fiscal funds on credit scale without systematically examining their effect on credit structure, making it theoretically impossible to comprehensively explain the influence mechanism of fiscal funds on credit allocation。 This project investigates the channels, effects, and optimization strategies through which fiscal funds influence the credit allocation structure of commercial banks. First, it characterizes the current state and interplay between fiscal funds and bank lending. Second, by conducting accounting analysis and model analysis, it extends the "Fiscal departments-Central banks dual agent" theory in "Neo-public Finance" to propose the theoretical mechanisms through which fiscal funds affect credit structure. Third, based on micro-data from 196 Chinese banks, it employs causal inference methods such as "difference-in-differences with multiple groups and times" and "machine learning-augmented instrumental variable regressions" to identify the impacts of fiscal expenditures, government debt, and treasury cash management on credit structure. Finally, it proposes optimization strategies for credit structure. This project will extend the theory of fiscal-monetary relations to the realm of credit structure and provide micro-level causal evidence. Concurrently, it will contribute to optimizing credit structure to support the real economy, mitigate financial risks, and enhance macroeconomic policy consistency.

This study investigates the effect of bilateral tax treaty (BTT) network centrality on countries’ global value chain (GVC) positions using a panel dataset of 62 economies from 2007 to 2021. Employing an instrumental variable approach, we find that higher BTT network centrality reduces a country's overall GVC position, with heterogeneous effects across sectors and participation types (forward and backward). The results suggest that increased BTT network centrality may facilitate production fragmentation and enable tax planning strategies (treaty shopping), leading to a distortion in the distribution of value-added across countries in GVCs.

中译信息：《双边税收协定网络与全球价值链》，载于《金融研究快报》第68卷（2024年10月，105975）。

This study investigates the contrasting impacts of local government debt on firm total factor productivity (TFP). Using a general equilibrium model and a panel dataset of Chinese firms from 2015 to 2019, we uncover that local government debt affects TFP via opposing crowding-out and crowding-in effects, mediated by firm financing constraints and R&D spending. Debt management efficiency is a vital determinant of these contrasting effects: efficiently managed debt (local government bonds) relaxes financing constraints and stimulates R&D, positively affecting TFP, while inefficiently managed debt (municipal investment bonds) tightens constraints and hampers R&D, negatively affecting TFP. Empirical results reveal heterogeneous impacts, with both crowding-in and crowding-out effects most pronounced among structurally disadvantaged firms (financially constrained and small firms in less developed regions). This study contributes by uncovering the contrasting effects of local government debt on TFP and offers policy insights on optimizing public debt financing to maximize productivity in emerging economies.

中译信息：《中国地方政府债务对全要素生产率的双面效应：挤出VS挤入》，载于《新兴市场金融与贸易》2024年6月12日在线发表期

COVID-19 has created long-lasting yet unprecedented challenges worldwide. In addition to scientific efforts, political efforts and public administration are also crucial to contain the disease. Therefore, understanding how multi-level governance systems respond to this public health crisis is vital to combat COVID-19. This study focuses on China and applies social network analysis to illustrate interactive governance between and within levels and functions of government, confirming and extending the existing Type I and Type II definition of multi-level governance theory. We characterize four interaction patterns, vertical, inter-functional, intra-functional, and hybrid, with the dominant pattern differing across governmental functions and evolving as the pandemic progressed. Empirical results reveal that financial departments of different levels of government interact through the vertical pattern. At the same time, intra-functional interaction also exists in provincial financial departments. The supervision departments typically adopt the inter-functional pattern at all levels. At the cross-level and cross-function aspects, the hybrid interaction pattern prevails in the medical function and plays a fair part in the security, welfare, and economic function. This study is one of the first to summarize the interaction patterns in a multi-level setting, providing practical implications for which pattern should be applied to which governmental levels/functions under what pandemic condition.

中译信息：《政府层级与职能间的互动治理——基于中国抗击新冠肺炎疫情的社会网络分析》，载于《美国公共行政评论》2022年第3期

参会宣讲 | Conference Presentation: The 10th Sino-US International Conference on Public Administration (第十届中美公共管理国际学术研讨会) [演示文稿|slides ]

人民日报海外版 | Peoples Daily （英文（EN））
新华社客户端 | Xinhua News APP (中文（CN）)
科学网 | ScienceNet （中文（CN））

While budget structure discontinuity signals decisional shifts, it has not been studied in depth in China’s context. We identify and explain budget structure discontinuity in 31 Chinese provinces between 1996 and 2018. We identify that fiscal expenditure on economic development and on science, education, culture, and healthcare (SECH) are more discontinuous, while expenditure on public safety is more incremental. We find that because Chinese provincial leaders have strong incentives to outperform predecessors and leaders of other provinces for better promotional prospects and transfer payments. New chief leaders gather political authority as their tenure increases and utilize their authority to overcome institutional inertia to achieve political missions, causing budget discontinuity. We empirically verify our mechanism and find that leaders strive for the upper reaches in economic development and approach the national average in SECH. With our mechanism, we form a coherent logic chain among institutional arrangements, budget discontinuity, and fiscal performance.

中译信息：《预算结构间断——中国情境下的机制揭示与逻辑关联》，载于《中国政治学刊》2021年第2期

参会宣讲 | Conference Presentation: The 76th Annual Congress of the International Institute of Public Finance(第76届国际财政学会年会) [演示文稿|slides]

财政政策长期缺乏准确定义,引发两重模糊性:与财政部门的行为相混淆;与货币政策的边界模糊。十九届四中全会提出健全宏观调控体系,要求财政、货币及其他政策协调。本文通过重新构建财政政策的定义,消除模糊性,从而为政策协调提供理论基础。本文首先梳理财政政策的词源与其后两百余年间的文献,论证模糊性的存在,并总结理论渊源;在重构定义之后,本文讨论了一般性和具体政策的典型分类,发现新定义既不与公认分类矛盾,又能消除传统概念的模糊。本文重构的定义明晰了财政政策的学理属性与理论边界,提出的弱财政政策的概念对政策制定如何考虑市场平台与政府参与之间的关系有实践意义,该定义的提出为中国特色财政学理论的构建与完善提供了概念基础。

English translation: Yao, D. & Yan, W..(2020).Redefinition of Fiscal Policy——Based on a Review of 200 Years’ Literature and the Inspiration from Chinese Practice. Public Finance Research(05),3–20. doi:10.19477/j.cnki.11-1077/f.2020.05.001.

转载 | Reprint ：人大复印报刊资料《财政与税务》2020年第10期全文转载 (Full text reprinted by Public Finance and Taxation of the China Social Science Excellence database: 2020(10), 3–16.)
完整版 | Extended version：包含更完整的文献综述与政策文本分析，受字数限制未刊发 (with richer literature review and policy analysis, unpublihsed due to word limit)

财政研究公众号 | Public Finance Research Subions （中文（CN））
财税思想馆 | Public Finance & Taxation Thoughts (中文（CN）)

Using data from the Truven Health Analytics MarketScan Databases, we studied the characteristics of medical expenditures associated with diabetes-related hospitalizations (inpatient data). We tried to identify the specific macro-level (socio-economic) and micro-level (individual-patient-related) factors that affect the cost of inpatient care among diabetes patient and to study if there is a significant difference between inpatient care expenditures of women and men.

中译信息：《美国患糖尿病相关疾病住院患者费用研究》，载于《计算机科学与计算机科学教育》2019年第1期 （会议论文出版）

参会宣讲 | Conference Presentation: The 15th Annual International Conference on Computer Science and Educations in Computer Science (第十五届计算机科学与计算机科学教育国际年会) [演示文稿|slides]

财政支出是公共服务供给的资金保障,近年来人民对地方政府公共服务满意度不高,这是否表示地方政府财政支出的结构和效率不佳?本文使用随机前沿分析方法评价2006—2015年四川省各市（州）财政支出效率,并探究地方政府财政支出效率影响因素。实证结果表明,四川省各市（州）财政支出效率总体上升,东部城市财政支出效率高于西部城市;四川省各市（州）在现有的财政支出结构下,个别产出指标的产出效应为负;宏观税负水平、经济发展水平、人口密度等正面影响财政支出效率。根据实证结果,本文提出地方政府财政支出效率的提升路径,以现有财政支出结构为基础,强化优势,补齐短板;根据无效率因子做出调整,营造良好财政支出环境。

English translation: Fu, Z. & Yan, W..(2018).Evaluation, Analysis, and Improvement of Local Government Expenditure Efficiency —— Based Municipalities in Sichuan Province. Journal of Dongbei University of Finance and Economics(05),58–66. doi:10.19653/j.cnki.dbcjdxxb.2018.05.008.

转载 | Reprint ：人大复印报刊资料《财政与税务》2018年第12期全文转载 (Full text reprinted by Public Finance and Taxation of the China Social Science Excellence database: 2020(12), 85–93.)

长江经济带财政收支量大、区域内经济发展水平差异较显著。文章以省级地方政府财政支出为输入变量,将基础设施水平、教科文发展水平和生态环境保护情况等六个方面的多项指标作为输出变量,构建综合评价指标体系,运用数据包络分析方法对我国长江经济带省级地方政府的财政支出效率进行综合评价,评价结果给出了各省级行政区的财政支出效率水平,反应了影响地方财政支出效率的主要因素。结果表明,地方财政支出效率和地方经济发展水平不存在直接关系,并根据分析结果提出了提高我国长江经济带地方财政支出效率的思路。

English translation: Fu, Z. & Yan, W..(2017).Comprehensive Evaluation of Local Fiscal Expenditure Efficiency in Yangtze River Economic Belt —— Based on Data Envelopment Analysis. Sub National Fiscal Research(09),28–36.

参会宣讲 | Conference Presentation: The 11th Annual Conference of the Consortium for Western China Development Studies (中国西部开发研究联合体第11届学术年会)

New Urbanization is a major strategic decision for building socialism with Chinese characteristics, which has a profound significance for the comprehensive moves towards the completion of building a moderately prosperous society, accelerating the process of socialist modernization. The development of new urbanization requires the support of relevant mechanisms and systems. According to documents released by the State Council of China, promoting the innovation of urbanization systems is a crucial component to the cause of new urbanization in 2015. Based on the new urbanization system stipulated in The National New Urbanization Plan (2014-2020), this paper chooses to analyze how the fund security mechanism promotes innovation of the urbanization system in Western China from the perspective of public finance and taxation. This paper analyzes the relationship between urbanization and fund security, the importance of public funding to urbanization, and the shortcomings of urbanization in terms of public funding and taxation. This paper also discusses how the urbanization system can be promoted by improving the institution of fiscal transfer payments and local tax systems.

中译信息：《财税视角下推进西部城镇化制度创新》，载于《中国金融与经济评论（财贸经济英文版）》2016年第4期

参会宣讲 | Conference Presentation: The 10th Annual Conference of the Consortium for Western China Development Studies (中国西部开发研究联合体第10届学术年会)

旧版 | Old version ：SpringerOpen

To be added.

中译信息：《资本结构是如何影响劳动收入份额的？来自中国公司层面的因果证据》，撰写中

参会宣讲 | Conference Presentation: 首届香樟财经论坛 (The 1st Camphor Economist Circle (CEC) Forum of Finance and Economics) [演示文稿|slides ]

To be added.

The reform of primary healthcare in China remains a challenging one, with questions raised about the skills and competencies of the GP workforce. This study aims to test the hypothesis that the competency challenge facing the GP workforce represents an unintended side effect of China’s healthcare reform agenda as a disincentive for GP skills development. We designed a discrete choice experiment to elicit GPs’ job preferences and experimented with 577 GPs in Chengdu. First, mixed logistic regression result reveals that GPs in Chengdu identified a lack of mobility within the workforce with many choosing to stay within primary care institutions. Second, tests for heterogeneity show age differences where the older the GP is, the greater the degree of unwillingness to develop skills and competencies within the role. Third, GPs with a lower professional title and educational background demonstrated even greater unwillingness. To this end, restructuring existing HR systems and developing new workforce strategies to attract more proficient GPs are highly recommended in future reforms.